Domestic rating agency Crisil has warned India's economic growth may slip to 8.2 per cent in FY22 if the second wave peaks in end of June, maintaining its baseline estimate of 11 per cent uptick in activity. The agency made it clear that the risks to its 11 per cent growth forecast are ‘firmly tilted downwards’, and presented two likely scenarios. If the second wave peaks in May-end, the GDP expansion will come at 9.8 per cent, and can go down to 8.2 per cent in current fiscal if the peaking happens in June-end.
As per official estimates, the economy contracted by 7.6 per cent in FY21, because of the national lockdown. There have been a slew of downward revisions in growth estimates after the emergence of the second wave, which has overwhelmed the healthcare apparatus and also led to localised lockdowns across the country. It acknowledged the lockdowns are less restrictive right now, but the expanse of area under such measures is increasing with the ingress of the virus into the rural areas where healthcare infrastructure is weak.
It said the ongoing fiscal will be a story of two halves growth in the first one till September will be supported by a base effect despite the spread of the pandemic, while growth will be better spread in the second half stretching from October-March 2022. Besides, the agency said two ‘gigantic challenges’ confront the country, including the spread of the second wave and vaccination. On the former, it said while the second wave have been bigger spreaders globally, but added that the death rates are falling in India with the rise in infections. However, India ranks lowest among fully vaccinated populations, it said, recommending that rendering jabs to half of the population by festivities in October would be good.
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