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Indian economy in better shape this year as compared to 2020: Revenue Secretary

31 May 2021 Evaluate

Revenue Secretary Tarun Bajaj has said that Indian economy has not suffered as much this year amid the second wave of COVID-19 as compared to last year when there was complete lockdown. Giving two scenarios, he said if Rs 1.10 lakh crore GST is collected per month, the deficit in states’ revenue would be Rs 1.50 lakh crore. If Rs 1.15 lakh crore GST is collected monthly, then that deficit would be Rs 1.25 lakh crore. So since Rs 1.58 lakh crore would be borrowed this fiscal towards compensating states, the extra borrowing, over and above what is the shortfall this year, would be utilised to make good the shortfall in states’ revenue of previous years.

Bajaj has stated that the Indian economy contracted 8 percent in the previous fiscal ended March 2021. Last month, the RBI retained its growth forecast at 10.5 per cent for the current financial year, while ADB projected a growth rate of 11 per cent. However, rating agencies have lowered growth forecasts for India, saying that the second wave of infections will hamper economic recovery. They, however, have estimated that the negative impact on economic output will be limited to the April-June quarter.

Revenue Secretary further said the Centre has estimated the shortfall in GST compensation payable to the states in the current fiscal at Rs 2.69 lakh crore, of which Rs 1.58 lakh crore would have to be borrowed this year. The Centre expects to collect over Rs 1.11 lakh crore through cess on luxury, demerit and sin goods which will be given to the states to compensate them for shortfall in revenue arising out of GST implementation. The remaining Rs 1.58 lakh crore would have to be borrowed to meet the promised compensation to states under the GST regime. In the last fiscal 2020-21, the Centre had borrowed on behalf of the states and released Rs 1.10 lakh crore to compensate them for the GST revenue shortfall. Another Rs 68,700 crore was collected by way of levy of cess.

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