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Covid-19 pandemic to worsen structural deficits, indebtedness of states: S&P

28 Jun 2021 Evaluate

S&P Global Ratings has said that the coronavirus disease (covid-19) pandemic could worsen structural deficits and indebtedness of states, despite a likely rebound in the economy over the next 12-24 months. It expects the country's economic growth to remain above average over the next few years and the rebound in the economy in the current fiscal ending March 31, 2022, will feed into states' revenues.

The US-based rating agency estimates revenues of states to increase by an average of 17 percent annually over fiscals 2021-2023. It noted that India's stronger growth than peer countries has been a key factor underpinning the sustainability of states' fiscal performance. It had cut India's growth forecast for the current fiscal to 9.5 percent from 11 percent earlier. It lowered the growth outlook saying that a severe second Covid-19 outbreak in April and May led sharp contraction in economic activity, but a gradual revival is underway.

S&P has stated that it will be hard for state governments to rapidly scale down elevated expenditures induced by Covid-19. The pandemic has led to increased spending on healthcare, social safety and digital infrastructure. It believes the extraordinary support from the central government and the Reserve Bank of India will remain a key pillar for states' fiscal framework and performance. A significant risk for the fiscal framework and performance of Indian states will be the Rs 3 trillion power sector reforms announced in FY2021-22 budget presented by the central government. While details of the proposed reform are not known yet, meaningful state participation is likely. The significant linkages between the power distribution companies (discoms) and states have led to the indebtedness of the discoms shifting to states.

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