The rating agency -- Standard and Poor's (S&P) has said Indian banks face systemic risks as the country wades through the aftermath of the Covid-19 second wave. The banking sector's weak loans are likely to remain elevated at 11-12 per cent of gross loans in the next 12-18 months. The second wave will impair the performance of Indian financial institutions in the first half of fiscal 2022, with much resting on the effectiveness of government measures to address this problem.
It stated credit losses should remain high at 2.2 per cent before recovering to 1.8 per cent in the year ending March 2023. Lenders struggled with a high level of weak loans well before the pandemic struck and, conditions have clearly deteriorated. The second wave has front-ended weakness in asset quality. Financial institutions face a strained first half amid weak collections and poor disbursements. Disbursements slowed considerably in April and May. The credit that banks extended fell by about one per cent in the first two months of this fiscal year. The drop was largely seasonal -- there were similar declines in the same period for fiscals 2018 and 2019. The credit growth in India started improving in June, and will continue to do so.
Further, it said that tourism and recreation related sectors, commercial real estate, and unsecured retail loans may contribute to higher non-performing loans (NPLs). However, the banking system's exposure to many of these segments is moderate, and should have only a limited effect. Housing finance (excluding affordable housing) and gold loans will likely be less affected than financing for micro enterprises or commercial vehicles. Finance companies will likely be more impacted than banks.
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