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RBI may start snipping rates in January; Duvvuri Subbarao

07 Nov 2012 Evaluate

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could ease monetary policy as early as January, Governor Duvvuri Subbarao stated on Monday, given the easing price pressure in Asia’s third-largest economy in the early next year. However, he added that it would be 'difficult and inappropriate' to say now which instrument the RBI would use the next time it eased policy. Further, justifying its stance on account of lack-of coordination between RBI and government, he underscored that RBI takes the economic impact of government policies into account in its decisions, but its actions aren't dependent on any specific reforms.

The central bank kept its key lending rate steady at 8.0%, while slashing banks' cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 25 bps to 4.25% at its meeting October 30, to prevent a crunch in liquidity, which could otherwise come under pressure close to festivals such as Diwali in November.

The lack of a rate cut disappointed India's government, which last month announced a five-year roadmap to limit its budget deficit to 5.3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fiscal year through March and to narrow it gradually to 3.0% by fiscal 2017. The RBI has been urging the government to bring down the deficit to give it space to take growth-supportive monetary steps.

Though, RBI has one more meeting scheduled in the last month of the Calendar Year when Subbarao said easing was “highly improbable.” He said that the central bank would next review policy at meetings on January 29 and in mid-March, noting the first-quarter easing guidance was based on forecasts for growth and inflation. Not weaving too many hopes, Governor stated that RBI after assessing the situation in January would try and act according to its guidance. However, should the situation be different, then India’s apex bank will have to defer until March.

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