India's GDP growth likely to come at deceptively high level of 20% in Q1FY22: ICRA

20 Aug 2021 Evaluate

Rating agency ICRA in its latest report has said that India's Gross domestic product (GDP) growth is estimated to come at the deceptively high level of 20 percent and the gross value added (GVA) will register a growth of 17 percent for the April-June 2021 quarter (Q1FY22) but is far below the same in the pre-COVID times. It said the low base of the last year, when the GDP had contracted by close to 24 percent, conceals the impact of the second wave of COVID-19 infections.

According to the report, economic activity is boosted by robust government capital expenditure, merchandise exports, and demand from the farm sector. It also said the GVA is estimated to contract 15 percent when compared to the preceding March quarter, which shows the impact of the second wave. It added that the double-digit expansion expected in YoY terms in Q1FY22 is deceptively high, as it benefits inordinately from last year's contracted base.

Based on its assessment of volumes and available earnings, ICRA is forecasting a GVA expansion in the industry at a considerable 37.5 percent, led by construction and manufacturing, which experienced significantly fewer curbs in the just-concluded quarter compared to the situation during last year's stringent nationwide lockdown. With a contraction in the Government of India's (GoI's) non-interest non-subsidy revenue expenditure and continued impairment in demand for contact-intensive services, the agency expects GVA in the services sector to post a relatively lower expansion of 12.7 percent in Q1FY22.

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