Factory output stages de-growth of 0.4 percent in September

12 Nov 2012 Evaluate

In signs that the economy is not out of woods, India’s index of industrial production (IIP), a key measure of industrial output witnessed contraction of 0.4 per cent in September 2012 at 163.6, way below the consensus estimates of 3 percent growth figure. Further, the number was below than August month’s growth figure of 2.7 per cent, which was later revised to 2.3 per cent. Meanwhile, the cumulative growth for the period April-September 2012-13 over the corresponding period of the previous year stands at 0.1 per cent.

The industrial output mostly has remained fragile in the previous few months, with an exception being August, as growth in all three sectors viz. mining, manufacturing and electricity got dampened. After taking a breather in the previous month, the manufacturing sector, which constitutes about 75.53 percent of industrial production, resumed its southbound journey, by witnessing contraction of 1.5 per cent for the month under review as against growth of 2.9 per cent in August.

However, mining sector, which constitutes about 14.6 percent of industrial production, grew at 5.5 per cent as against growth of 2 per cent in August. Further, growth in electricity sector too rose to 3.9 percent versus a 1.9 percent in the previous month. The cumulative growth in the three sectors during April-September 2012-13 over the corresponding period of 2011-12 has been 0.0 per cent, (-) 0.4 per cent and 4.6 per cent respectively.

Capital goods output, a key investment indicator, clearly continued to be a disappointment as capital goods production witnessed a massive decline of 12.2 percent on y-o-y basis highlighting that companies are wary of making investments in high-interest and uncertain economic climate. Consumer goods, on the other hand, witnessed contraction 0.3 per cent, driven by decline of 1.7 percent in consumer durables. Meanwhile, non consumer-durables, registered 1.1 percent growth.

Industrial output, which accounts for a little over 15 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), highlights continuing weakness for the economy, which languished near a three-year low of 5.5 percent annually in the three months to June. However, the country has a long way to go before its springs back to the stellar growth rates of the past, after having slipped since February into a phase called stagnation that has become worst since the depths of a global crisis three years ago.

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