Jayanth R Varma, who is a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank, has said that the ongoing economic recovery will quickly take India above the pre-pandemic levels in most sectors of the economy except contact-intensive services. He noted that the improved health of the Indian financial sector is also a positive factor for economic growth. He said that high and persistent inflation is a major constraint on monetary policy. He added that beyond that point, the challenge is to reverse the slowdown that began around 2018 and achieve sustained robust growth.
Talking on the prices front, he said that inflation was above 6 percent in 2020-21, is likely to be above 5.5 percent in 2021-22, and is projected to be above 5 percent even in the first quarter of 2022-23. Elevated inflation for such a long period creates the risk that households and businesses will start expecting high inflation in the future as well. He said such entrenchment of inflation expectations makes the task of monetary policy more difficult. According to him, it is usually much easier to nip high inflationary expectations in the bud than it is to change these expectations after they have become entrenched. '
Varma pointed out that one key factor that dampens inflation expectations is the credibility of the central bank. To maintain this credibility, he said the Monetary Policy Committee has to respond decisively to inflationary pressures as they begin to take root in the economy. Asked when the private investment will pick up in India, he said the capital investment will pick up when capacity utilization rises to a significantly higher level than what is observed at present. On the positive side, he noted that capacity utilization is gradually improving in many industries.
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