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ICRA revises outlook from 'stable' to 'positive' for domestic steel sector

03 Sep 2021 Evaluate

Ratings agency ICRA has revised its outlook from 'stable' to 'positive' for the domestic steel sector, as all major listed steel companies have delivered healthy financial performance during the April-June 2021 quarter. After the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, ICRA had assigned a 'negative' outlook on the sector expecting a record fall of 20 per cent in domestic steel demand during the financial year ended March 2021. However, it later upgraded its outlook for the sector to 'stable' on the back of improving demand and prices.

ICRA said ‘It has revised the steel sector's outlook to 'positive' from 'stable' following all large listed steel companies reporting their best-ever quarterly performance in Q1 (April-June period) of financial year 2022, and the earnings outlook remaining healthy for the remaining months of FY2022.’ Given the strong earnings growth and capital expenditure (capex) curtailments following the pandemic-related uncertainty, steelmakers started to aggressively de-leverage since the second quarter of FY2021. This trend is reflected by the industry's consolidated debt levels declining to Rs 2 lakh crore in July-end 2021, from Rs 2.6 lakh crore in July-end 2020, registering a sharp decline of over 21 per cent.

The industry's consolidated borrowings today are at their lowest levels since March 2012. On taking a closer look at the industry's consolidated borrowing per metric tonne of installed capacity, it stood at $180 per tonne in July 2021, shrinking by almost half from $350 per tonne prevailing in November 2008. ICRA said this suggests that domestic steel companies are now significantly less leveraged than in FY2009, when the last steel supercycle ended, following the global financial crises.

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