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Inflation cools down to 7.45 percent in October 2012

15 Nov 2012 Evaluate

After a dismal IIP numbers the inflation data has given some respite to the jittered investors as India’s WPI inflation rate in October declined. Lower than expected it rose to 7.45 percent in October 2012 (over October, 2011) as compared to 7.81 percent (Provisional) for the previous month and 9.87 percent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Build up inflation in the financial year so far was 4.78 percent compared to a buildup of 5.02 percent in the corresponding period of the previous year.

However, sharp upward revision in the August numbers overshadowed the lower-than-expected October figure. The August WPI inflation was revised to 8.01 percent from the provisional 7.55 percent. Now there are concerns being raised that the numbers of September and October too will be revised upward, as the underlying inflationary pressures remained firm despite decline in food inflation.

As per the government data, primary articles inflation stood at 8.21 percent down from 8.77 percent a month ago. The index for ‘Food Articles’ group declined by 0.1 percent to 212.5 (Provisional) from 212.7 (Provisional) for the previous month due to lower prices of bajra down by 6 percent, fish-marine down by 5 percent, urad down by 4 percent, arhar, gram, maize and poultry chicken down by 2 percent each and barley and condiments & spices down by 1% each percent. However, the prices of ragi moved up by 6 percent, fish-inland was up by 3 percent, moong, coffee and mutton increased by 2 percent each and tea, milk and rice was up by 1 percent each moved up.

The index for ‘Non-Food Articles’ group declined by 2.3 percent to 197.7 (Provisional) from 202.4 (Provisional) for the previous month due to lower prices of soyabean down by 22 percent, niger seed down by 9 percent, castor seed down by 8 percent, gingelly seed down by 6 percent, raw jute and raw cotton down by 5percent each, copra and raw silk down by 2 percent each. However, the prices of gaur seed moved up by 8 percent, rape & mustard seed and flowers gained 6 percent each, coir fibre was up by 4 percent, sunflower higher by 3 percent, raw rubber and cotton seed moved up by 2 percent each and mesta, linseed, fodder too were up by 1 percent each.

Fuel & power group inflation in October was 11.71 percent against 11.88 percent a month ago. The index rose by 0.8 percent to 189.9 (Provisional) from 188.3 (Provisional) for the previous month. Inflation in manufactured products during the month was 5.95 percent, down from 6.26 percent. The index for this major group rose by 0.1 percent to 147.9 (Provisional) from 147.7 (Provisional) for the previous month.

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Inflation cools down to 7.45 percent in October 2012

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