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India likely to post strong economic growth in coming quarters: S&P

09 Sep 2021 Evaluate

S&P Global Ratings in its latest report has said that India is expected to post strong economic growth in the coming quarters, even as inflation, led by food prices, is likely to remain elevated. It noted that the economy is expected to clock 9.5 percent growth in the current fiscal year (FY22), followed by 7 percent expansion in the next year, and added that high nominal GDP growth would be important for ensuring fiscal consolidation going forward.

According to the report, given India's weak fiscal settings and a high stock of debt around 90 percent of GDP, the nominal GDP growth is going to be very important to prevent any further erosion of fiscal settings in the country and to enable some degree of fiscal consolidation going forward. It said the fiscal deficit would remain elevated over the next two years but the debt/GDP ratio is expected to stabilize or flatten out.

It further said India's external position has strengthened in the context of the pandemic and India has been generating forex reserves at a record pace. It also said the second wave of the pandemic has been pretty costly to economic activity. Households have been affected and households are going to be repairing their balance sheets and withholding from spending which means activity will remain below trend once the recovery gets underway.

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