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Moody’s retains India’s sovereign Baa3 rating stable

27 Nov 2012 Evaluate

Global ratings agency Moody's on country's high savings and investment rates has retained India’s sovereign Baa3 ratings stable in its annual credit analysis on the country, supported by credit strengths which include a large, diverse economy, strong GDP growth as well as savings, and investment rates that exceed emerging market averages.

The reaffirmation of the outlook comes as a relief to the government which is struggling to keep the reform process on track amid stiff political opposition. The stable outlook on India's rating is based on Moody's expectation that the economy's structural strengths, a high household savings rate and relatively competitive private sector will ultimately raise the GDP growth rate from around 5.4 per cent in FY 2013 to 6 per cent or higher in FY 2014.

However, the rating is controlled by the credit challenges posed by India's poor social and physical infrastructure, high government deficit and debt ratios, recurrent inflationary pressures and an uncertain operating environment. During last month, Standard & Poor's warned India still faced a one-in-three chance of a credit rating downgrade over the next 24 months, although it said a series of reform steps launched in September had slightly improved the country's prospects.

However, Moody's cautions that unanticipated domestic political turmoil, a further worsening in global growth and financial conditions, or a surge in food and other commodity prices could all affect the pace and timing of the recovery.

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