OECD projects Indian GDP growth to fall to 4.5% in 2012

29 Nov 2012 Evaluate

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has projected Indian GDP growth to 4.5% in 2012. As per OECD, Indian GDP growth could fall to 4.5% citing that economy has experienced a broad-based slowdown and growth is expected to remain weak for some time. The current account deficit has narrowed as imports have softened on account of cooling domestic demand and a weaker rupee.

On the price front, inflation has temporarily been pushed up by hikes in regulated petroleum prices but is expected to decline as spare capacity mounts. This will create room for easing monetary policy, which has been hindered by persistently high inflation and a widening fiscal deficit. Recent moves to liberalize foreign direct investment in some sectors, including retail and aviation, have boosted business sentiment somewhat and will promote higher investment and productivity over the medium term. The fiscal position has weakened as tax revenues have been hit by the slowdown and spending has overshot.

However, Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said ‘OECD's economic growth forecast for India in the current fiscal as ‘completely wrong.’ Ahluwalia said OECD, had mechanically projected deceleration of growth rate without taking into consideration the expenditure trends and national accounting practices. The OECD had failed to understand that there was a distortion in the data for the first quarter and have mechanically projected as if deceleration has continued very sharply'. Also, he added, the OECD did not take into account the fact there is bunching of subsidy.

According to the latest OECD economic outlook, the global economy is expected to make a hesitant and uneven recovery over the coming two years. Decisive policy action is needed to ensure that stalemate over fiscal policy in the United States and continuing euro area instability do not pull the World back into recession. GDP growth across the OECD is projected to match this year’s 1.4% in 2013, before gathering momentum to 2.3% for 2014. Labour markets remain weak, with around 50 million jobless people in the OECD area.

Unemployment is set to remain high or even rise further, in many countries unless structural measures are used to boost near-term employment growth. The euro area crisis remains a serious threat to the world economy, despite recent measures that have dampened near-term pressures. Adjustment of deep-rooted imbalances across the euro area has begun, but much more is needed to ensure long-term sustainability, including structural reform in both deficit and surplus countries.

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