India’s fiscal deficit likely to be better at 6.6% on stronger tax buoyancy in FY22: Fitch Ratings

23 Nov 2021 Evaluate

Fitch Ratings, the international rating agency, has said the Centre could better its fiscal deficit at 6.6 per cent of GDP in this financial year (FY22) on stronger-than-expected revenue buoyancy, even if the budgeted disinvestment target is not met. In the 2021-22 (April-March) Budget presented on February 1, the government had pegged the fiscal deficit, or gap between the Centre's expenditure and revenue, at 6.8 per cent of GDP or Rs 15.06 lakh crore.

At the end of September, which is six months in the financial year, the fiscal deficit touched 35 per cent of budget estimates. The international rating agency had last week kept the sovereign rating unchanged at 'BBB-' with a negative outlook, and said that the risks to India's medium-term growth outlook are narrowing with rapid economic recovery from the pandemic and easing financial sector pressures.

Fitch Ratings Director (Asia-Pacific Sovereigns) Jeremy Zook said the two key positive triggers that could lead to a revision of the outlook to stable are implementation of a credible medium-term fiscal strategy to lower debt burden and higher medium-term investment and growth rates without the creation of macroeconomic imbalances, such as from successful structural reform implementation and a healthier financial sector.

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