Moody's Investors Service in its latest report has said that the economic impact of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 on emerging market countries will differ and will depend on a mix of government restrictions, public comfort with social interactions, and the capacity of governments and central banks to provide additional policy support to the private sector if needed.
According to the report, the emergence of the new variant poses new risks to the global economic growth and inflation outlook, as concerns mount about the variant's health risks and several countries have imposed new travel restrictions in recent days. It said these restrictions will likely increase over the coming weeks until scientists learn more about the variant. Continued progress in global vaccination efforts and public compliance with the use of tools such as masks and social distancing will be important factors in determining the economic impact of the new variant. It pointed out that countries with an assured supply of effective vaccines and delivery systems, and high levels of vaccine acceptance by the public, will remain better positioned.
Moody's said the emergence of the new variant also comes during a period of fragile economic recovery, with stretched supply chains, elevated inflation, and labor market shortages. Business disruption resulting from the spread of the new variant could prevent supply chain stresses from easing, dampening productive capacity, and stoking further cost pressures in sectors with exposure to global supply chains. On the demand side, it said fear of infection could prevent a large proportion of individuals from engaging in economic activity that requires close contact. Thus, it said demand could diminish for services ranging from hospitality to travel, at a time when holiday-related spending would usually ramp up.
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