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Fitch cautions of loose fiscal policy leading to downgrade

04 Dec 2012 Evaluate

Although, government is struggling to keep the pace of reforms going, global ratings agency Fitch has cautioned that a loosening in fiscal policy ahead of the 2014 elections could further weaken India's public finances and fiscal slippages in the run-up to 2014 general elections along with declining growth could result in India's rating downgraded to below the investment level.

The rating agency though pegged the GDP growth for the current financial year to 6 percent from its earlier estimates of 6.5 percent and said that that an improved investment climate which supports greater infrastructure investment, and a sharp sustained decline in inflation, would support the current 'BBB -' rating, which is a notch above the investment grade. But it also said that 'Policy slippage and/or mounting evidence of a structural decline in the trend growth rate, such as protracted relatively weak economic data, could cause the ratings to be downgraded”.

Fitch has lowered India's credit rating outlook to negative from stable in June, and had later said the possibility of downgrading the country's sovereign rating is more than 50 percent in the next 12-24 months. The latest caution from Fitch comes as a fresh challenge for the government, which is fighting to avert a downgrade from global ratings agencies.

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