Bond yields spike up post RBI leaves key rates unchanged; CRR disappointment weighs

18 Dec 2012 Evaluate

Bond yields were treading water ahead of RBI’s mid-quarter monetary policy review 2012-2013, where the apex bank prolonging its anti-inflationary stance, is yet again expected to keep key policy rates unchanged. However, the street is widely expecting CRR cut in this policy meet. Inflation declined to 10-month low of 7.24 percent in November from 7.45 percent in the previous month, raising hopes that RBI may cut rates to spur growth. The economy posting GDP growth below 6 percent for the past three quarters is on track for its weakest annual performance in a decade in the fiscal year ending March.

On the global front, US Treasuries dipped in Asian trade on Tuesday on hopes that policymakers in Washington will reach a deal to avert sharp fiscal contraction as President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans showed signs of compromise. Meanwhile, Brent crude rose above $108 a barrel on Tuesday, on expectations of a revival in demand growth as the United States made progress in talks to resolve a budget crisis that threatens to dip the world's top oil consumer into recession again.

The yields on 10-year 8.79% - 2021 were trading flat at its previous close of 8.14% on Monday.

The benchmark five-year interest rates were up 1 basis point to 7.11% from its previous close of 7.10%.

The Reserve Bank of India has announced the auction of 91-day and 182-day Government of India Treasury Bills for notified amount of Rs 5,000 crore each. The auction will be conducted on December 19, 2012 using 'Multiple Price Auction' method.

Post RBI Mid-Quarter Monetary Policy Review 2012-2013 Scenario:

Shrugging off moderation in inflation figures in past two months, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept interest rates on hold in its ‘Mid-Quarter Monetary Policy Review: December 2012’ despite government’s pressure for a cut, sticking to its guidance of not easing monetary policy before early next year.

Acting prisoner to its own guidance, RBI, left key policy rates, viz. repo and reverse repo, untouched at 8 per cent and 7 per cent respectively. However, what came as a major disappointment was a status quo stance even on Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), tool off lately being used to manage a cash deficit and prod banks to loosen lending rates. CRR or the portion of deposits banks keep with RBI remain unchanged at 4.25%. Meanwhile, the marginal standing facility (MSF) and the Bank Rate were untouched at 9.0 per cent

The yields on 10-year 8.79% - 2021 rose 2 basis points higher to 8.16% from its previous close of 8.14% on Monday.

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