Govt lowers economic growth projection to 5.7% for current fiscal

18 Dec 2012 Evaluate

Pitching the need for supportive monetary and fiscal policies to perk up investor confidence, the government lowered the growth projection for the current fiscal to 5.7-5.9% from 7.6% estimated earlier. As per the mid-year economic analysis for 2012-13, which was tabled in Parliament on December 17, the growth rate in the second half of the current fiscal would be close to around 6%.

This growth projection by the government would be the lowest growth since 2002-03, when the economy expanded by a mere 4%. Further, meeting revenue realization, disinvestment target, and containing fiscal deficit at 5.3% of GDP would be the challenges before the economy to reach the desired growth rate.

Referring to inflation, the report said further moderation in price rise is expected to happen by the fourth quarter of the financial year. ‘Inflation at the end of March 2013 is expected to moderate to 6.8-7% level.’ Further to bring down inflation, the government on its part should address concerns relating to structural supply side bottlenecks, which is the main reason behind the price rise.

As per the report, the economy can reach the desired growth rate in near future on the back of confidence inducing Budget, speeding up clearance for projects, and further steps taken in capital market reform to boost investors’ confidence and propel growth momentum. By adding further it said, economic slowdown has bottomed out and is headed towards higher growth in near future driven by factors like improved business confidence, better industrial output numbers, corporate profitability and moderating inflation.

On the rising current account deficit (CAD), the report said, the government can reduce its CAD by improving the exports and trade balance. The CAD and trade deficit would be lower than the last fiscal. In 2011-12 fiscal, CAD was 4.2%. However, uncertainty, on account of disinvestment receipts and likely higher subsidy requirement, does make it a challenging task to adhere to the overall fiscal deficit target in 2012-13.

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