Moody’s Investors Service in its latest report has said that Global oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) prices are expected to see a sharp rise in the event of a Russia-Ukraine conflict, which will be positive for the relatively few exporters in the Asia Pacific region and negative for the substantially greater number of net energy importers.
The report stated that trade effects are likely to arise from import diversion and diversification, although there may be opportunities for commodities producers in Central Asia to increase supply to China. It said supply chain bottlenecks will also be aggravated, adding to inflation pressures in the region. However, it said a mitigating factor is that several Asian economies have long-term supply contracts in place for LNG, which will limit the impact of fluctuations in the spot price. It noted that Global crude oil benchmark Brent neared the $100 per barrel on Feb 23, 2022 amid the rising threat of invasion in Ukraine and fears of sanctions on Russia, the largest exporter of natural gas and second-largest oil exporter.
According to the report, India imports about 85 percent of its crude oil needs and about half of its natural gas requirement. While the imported crude oil is turned into fuels such as petrol and diesel, gas is used as CNG in automobiles and fuel in factories. It said its rated issuers in the Asia-Pacific have limited direct exposure to Russian or Ukrainian entities. Nonetheless, issuers in APAC may not be immune to the second-round effects of a conflict. Among the possible transmission, channels are commodities prices, trade effects, and financial market disruption.
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