Indian economy poised for recovery but high crude oil price cause for concern: CEA Anantha Nageswaran

25 Feb 2022 Evaluate

Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran has expressed optimism over economic growth and said that the Indian economy is now poised for recovery but high crude oil price is a cause for concern. He said the banking sector in the country is stable, capital is available and credit offtake is poised to take off. He also said ‘we are not unique to the phenomenon of uncertain growth and high inflation due to the pandemic. Developed countries are also facing the same problem.’ The budget for 2022-23 has been made keeping in mind that the price of crude oil will be around $75 per barrel. But due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the price of Texas crude is now $96 per barrel.

Nageswaran said ‘Its impact on the Indian economy will depend how long this high price will remain’. According to him, inflation and purchasing power is a worldwide problem. This has been due to rise in shipping costs, high container costs and high oil prices. He said in India inflation rates are hovering around 5.2 per cent at the moment. ‘But, I feel it should remain within four to six per cent in the next fiscal which the RBI is targeting’. He said the market has begun to correct in India. Activity levels in some industries have crossed the pre-pandemic levels. But the services sector is yet to recover.

Regarding private sector investment scenario, the CEA said it is yet to pick up due to the pandemic cloud which is still there. It will pick up when consumption levels increase. He said ‘But the capital expenditure plan in the budget is higher in 2022-23. This has been done to fill in the void. In fact, capital expenditure by the states have also increased’. He noted that for India to achieve $5 trillion economy, the share of agriculture, manufacturing and services should be in the ratio 20:30:50 in the country’s GDP.

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