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Domestic aviation industry likely to report net loss of Rs 26,000 crore in FY22: ICRA

04 Mar 2022 Evaluate

Domestic rating agency ICRA in its latest report has said that the Indian aviation industry is expected to report a net loss of Rs 25,000-26,000 crore this fiscal (FY22). It said elevated aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices, (which were 68 per cent higher year-on-year basis in 11 months of the ongoing fiscal FY2022) and continued fare caps continue to pose a major challenge for the profitability of the airlines. However, it said the domestic airlines are likely to post a reduced net loss of Rs 14,000-16,000 crore in the next financial year on the back of a notable recovery in air passenger traffic and lower level of debt. It also estimates that the industry will require an additional funding in the range of Rs 20,000-22,000 crore during FY22-FY24.

The ratings agency expects domestic air passenger traffic to witness a strong y-o-y growth of 50-55 per cent in 2021-22 supported by the fast pace of vaccination and gradual relaxations in restrictions by the regulatory authorities. However, it said this recovery will be on a much lower base of FY2021. It added that this will be significantly lower than the pre-COVID-19 levels, given that the recovery to pre-COVID-19 levels is expected by FY2024. With the onset of the second wave of the pandemic and the later emergence of the Omicron variant, the recovery in passenger traffic remained gradual in the current fiscal.

According to the report, the recovery in domestic air passenger traffic is expected to be supported by pent-up demand in the leisure travel segment and gradual recovery in business travel as corporate offices move towards the resumption phase, after the third wave. It stated that the impact of the pandemic has been more profound and long-lasting on international travel, compared to domestic travel, with scheduled international operations still under suspension. It said in the near term, the balance sheets of Indian carriers will remain stressed until the carriers are able to reduce their debt burden through a combination of improvement in operating performance and/ or through equity infusion.

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