Crisil in its latest report has warned that the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the flurry of punitive sanctions imposed on the former by the US and European nations, have the potential to cull India's imports on one hand and also lead to input cost pressure on downstream companies in India Inc. The country's exports to Russia stood at $2.55 billion in the first nine months of the current fiscal (0.8 percent of total imports), up 36.1 percent from $1.87 billion in the same period last fiscal (0.9 percent). On the other hand, exports to Ukraine were only 0.2 percent at $372 million during this period, up 18.8 percent from $313 million or 0.1 percent of the total outward shipments.
However, the report said a few sectors such as steel and aluminum may benefit from rising prices, which added that the impact on the country's exim trade will be due to the crippling sanctions on Russia by the US and Europe. The ongoing war has led to a spike in commodity prices, and if this is not passed on, it can increase input costs and squeeze the margins of downstream sectors.
It further said net-net, the impact of the ongoing war will vary by sector. A clearer picture, including of credit quality of affected companies, will emerge only in due course after the geopolitical situation improves. The price of Brent crude has skyrocketed above $125 a barrel from $97 before the Russian invasion began on February 24. Apart from oil marketing companies, this will also impact sectors such as chemicals and paints, which use crude oil-linked derivatives as their primary feedstock.
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