Icra warns of serious downside risks to economy in next fiscal

09 Mar 2022 Evaluate

Rating agency Icra in its latest report has said that it has warned of serious downside risks to the economy in next fiscal (FY23) with runaway current account deficit, steep fall in the rupee and a hardening yields on government bonds, as a result of the Russian-Ukraine crisis and the resultant spike in crude and other commodity prices.

It stated that International crude oil prices have hit a 14-year high at USD 130 a barrel on March 7, up from USD 94 a barrel before the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, which is the world's third-largest oil producer, supplying 14 per cent of global production. The price of the Indian crude oil basket has averaged USD 114.6 a barrel so far in March, a steep 22.9 per cent surge from USD 93.3 a barrel in February.

It mentioned at the current crude level, the current account deficit is likely to widen by USD 14-15 billion (0.4 per cent of GDP) for every USD 10 per barrel rise in the average price. If the price averages USD 130 a barrel in FY23, then the CAD will widen to 3.2 per cent of GDP, crossing 3 per cent for the first time in a decade.   Accordingly, if the ongoing war pushes up the average price of the Indian crude oil basket in FY23 to USD 115 a barrel, the CAD is projected to widen to USD 100-105 billion or 2.8 per cent of GDP.

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