Fitch Ratings in its latest report has said that strengthening economic recovery and stable financial metrics will help state-owned banks have stable earnings during the next financial year, aided by the gradual unwinding of regulatory forbearance through the year. It also said private sector banks are better placed to reap the benefits of recovery and will continue to increase their market share both in credit as well as deposits. Noting that regulatory forbearance has suppressed state-owned banks' immediate capital requirements by deferring recognition of stressed loans, the report said private banks are most competitive on this front, too.
It expects earnings and profitability of banks to recover next fiscal on the back of falling loan impairment charges that improved to 1.2% in H1 of FY22, from 1.7% a year ago, because forbearance will limit fresh loan impairments. Asset quality pressure will ease on the back of improving recoveries from impaired loans, while earnings are supported by adequate pre-provision profit of 3.6% in H1, up 10 basis points against a year ago, thanks to stable net interest margins and operating costs.
But, it said waning forbearance is likely to pressure profitability, and average operating profit/risk-weighted assets will remain commensurate with banks' current earnings and profitability scores. On the other hand, it stated earnings of private banks should continue to outperform state-owned banks, supported by higher pre-provisioning income buffers and more profitable loan mix along with greater diversification of income base. However, it warned any rise in loan impairment charges after forbearance unwinds should be somewhat offset by robust loan growth and rising fee income amid steady cost/income ratios. It said the banking market is focused on traditional banking, as reflected in the high share of loans at 55% of assets.
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