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  3. Prudent budget assumptions will ensure macro-fundamentals will be able to hold-up in near-term: CEA

Prudent budget assumptions will ensure macro-fundamentals will be able to hold-up in near-term: CEA

14 Mar 2022 Evaluate

Amid heightened concerns over the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the Indian economy, Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran has said that prudent budget assumptions for FY23 will ensure that the macro-fundamentals will be able to hold-up in the near-term. He said the assumptions on growth and revenue mop-up are prudent because they internalise the prevailing uncertainties. He said barring prolonged uncertainties with respect to the oil price and geopolitical developments, the macro-fundamentals should be able to withstand the near-term shocks emanating from these developments.

At a time when some analysts have already downwardly reviewed their estimates on the country's growth, Nageswaran said the impact of the on-going developments on India's GDP growth, inflation, monetary policy and currency will have to be assessed ‘depending on the duration’ of the current uncertainties and how they influence the energy prices. He said all these things are still evolving and it will be too premature to draw definitive conclusions. He said ‘we need to remain prepared, vigilant in order to address any contingency that would arise from the global developments.’

CEA further said it must be a matter of comfort to all of us that to some extent the Government of India, knowing and being aware that it is operating in an environment of extreme uncertainty either due to the pandemic or due to other factors, has been conservative in the manner in which it has prepared the budgets over the last two years. The academic-turned-policymaker said after two years of the pandemic-induced crisis, the country was looking to rev-up on the growth engine in the new fiscal, after being fortunate to have a limited impact of the third wave of the pandemic. However, tensions on the geopolitical front took over soon.

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