Markets likely to get optimistic start amid firm global cues

Indian markets made a smart recovery in the second half of a choppy session on Tuesday, led by gains in IT, financial, oil & gas and auto shares. Today, the start of session is likely to be optimistic following firm global cues. Investors are likely to continue monitoring developments on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has now continued for an entire month. Traders will be taking encouragement as a periodic labour force survey by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed that unemployment rate for persons of age 15 years and above in urban areas dipped to 9.8 per cent in July-September 2021 from 13.2 per cent in the same quarter of the previous year. Some support will come as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) retained the outlook for India’s real gross domestic product (GDP) at 5.5% in FY24. Traders may take note of report that NITI Aayog sought to dispel the fear that India is favouring a closed economy by promoting Atmanirbhar mission, and said the country can achieve better results for its people by having a deeper engagement with the global supply and value chain. Meanwhile, a parliamentary panel has appreciated the government’s efforts to cut the food subsidy bill but said it is still very high and there is scope for further reduction. The Standing Committee on Food, Consumer Affairs and Public Distribution tabled a report in the Lok Sabha on March 22, 2022. OMCs will be in focus as petrol and diesel prices were raised by around 80 paise a litre for the second straight day on March 23. The oil marketing companies (OMCs) increased the petrol retail price by 75 paise a litre and diesel by 76 paise. In two days, the prices of retail fuel have gone up by close to Rs 1.80 a litre each. There will be some reaction in oil & gas sector stocks as the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas released its monthly production report for February 2022 showed that crude oil production failed to meet target while also lower in terms of year-on-year (YoY) data for the period; while natural gas production was higher in YoY terms, but still lower than the monthly target.

The US markets ended higher on Tuesday as investors digested Fed Chair’s hawkish remarks. Asian markets are trading in green on Wednesday tracking a surge in Wall Street indices overnight.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks rebounded from early lows to close over a per cent higher on Tuesday, helped by heavy buying in index heavyweights Tech Mahindra, Reliance Industries and Bajaj Finserv amid gains in global equities. After making cautious start, domestic markets traded in the red for most part of the session, as traders were worried as rating agency Fitch in its Global economic Outlook-March 2022 has slashed India's growth forecast for the next fiscal to 8.5 per cent from 10.3 per cent. The agency slashed India's growth forecast on account of sharply higher energy prices. Some concern also came after Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said that all COVID-related liquidity relief measures extended by the central bank have come with a sunset date and would be withdrawn in due course. Some pessimism also came as foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital market, as they sold shares worth Rs 2,962.12 crore on Monday. However, the domestic bourses recovered from intraday losses during late deals to end higher, taking support from Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das’ statement that the RBI will continue to ensure adequate liquidity to support the economy, which is facing many headwinds in the form of soaring crude oil and key commodity prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Some support also came as Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal stating that several ministries, which are related to e-commerce, are deliberating on the e-commerce policy draft and it will be put out in the public domain after discussions. Meanwhile, Parliamentary panel has suggested that the government should extend the period of repayment of loans under the Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) for the MSME sector. The Parliamentary standing committee on industry has also asked the government to digitize the GST system to ensure paperless refund of claims. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 696.81 points or 1.22% to 57,989.30 and the CNX Nifty was up by 197.90 points or 1.16% to 17,315.50.