The Planning Commission is expected to further lower the target for the average annual GDP growth rate over the 12th Five-Year Plan from the earlier projected 8.2 per cent. Lowering the growth target means lower revenues, which could add pressure on controlling the fiscal deficit.
The draft plan is likely to be finalized in the National Development Council meeting to be scheduled on December 26. The meeting chaired by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, will be attended by senior union ministers and chief ministers of almost all states.
If the Council approves the plan then this would be the third occasion when the average annual growth target is lowered. Last year, the plan panel had set the target at 9-9.5 per cent growth yearly, which was lowered to 8.2 per cent in September 2012. In the first year of the 12th plan, the economy registered a growth of 5.4 per cent in the first half of this fiscal.
The Planning Commission’s growth projection of 8.2 percent is mainly depended on the policy initiatives to be taken by the government. However, failure on the government’s part to push through the reforms could allow the growth to fall 6-6.5 per cent.
Further, as per the 12th Plan document, the average annual growth rate of 8.2 per cent is based on the annual industry growth rate of 8.1 per cent, services growth of 9.1 per cent and agriculture growth rate of 4 per cent. However in 11th five-year plan, the average annual growth of 7.9 per cent was attained with industry growth rate at 6.6 per cent, services growth at 9.8 per cent and agriculture growth at 3.3 per cent.
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