Markets likely to get flat-to-positive start amid mixed global cues

Indian markets continued to fall for the sixth session in a row on Friday, dragged by financial and metal stocks though FMCG, oil & gas and auto shares limited the downside. Today, the markets are likely to get flat-to-positive start amid mixed global cues. Traders will be taking encouragement with Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal’s statement that the comprehensive trade agreement between India and the UAE will help in creating huge job opportunities and boost growth of the domestic economy. The bilateral pact is expected to increase the bilateral trade in goods to over $100 billion and trade in services to over $15 billion within five years. Some support will come as data provided by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) showed that in one of the largest expansions in the labour market since the beginning of the pandemic, 8.8 million people joined the country's workforce in April. However, some cautiousness may come as investors will be closely monitoring the wholesale price index (WPI) reading for April to be released later in the day, after retail inflation for the month came to an eight-year high of 7.8 per cent. Traders may be concerns as Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showed that India’s forex reserves declined by $1.774 billion to $595.954 billion for the week ended May 6 on the back of a fall in the core currency assets. Insurance industry stocks will be in focus as data from IRDAI showed the gross premium income of non-life insurance companies grew nearly 24 per cent to Rs 21,326.58 crore in April. The non-life insurance companies had a gross premium business worth Rs 17,251.10 crore in April 2021. There will be some reaction in edible oil industry stocks as the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA) said imports of vegetable oils, comprising edible and non-edible oils, fell 13 per cent to nearly 9.12 lakh tonnes during April due to lower import of crude palm oil. It added import of vegetable oils stood at 9,11,846 tonnes in April 2022 compared to 10,53,347 tonnes in April 2021. There will be some important earnings announcements too to keep the markets buzzing.

The US markets ended higher on Friday as relief at signs of peaking inflation vied with fears that policy tightening by the Fed could tilt the world's largest economy into recession. Asian markets are trading mixed on Monday after shockingly weak data from China underlines the deep damage lockdowns were doing to the world's second largest economy.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks reversed early gains and ended the day with marginal losses on Friday on late selling pressure in Metal, Utilities & Telecom stocks. With this, the markets ended lower for the sixth straight day despite upbeat global mood. Key gauges made gap-up opening, as traders took support with the finance ministry stated that measures taken by the RBI and government will squeeze the duration of high inflation fuelled by global factors. It also said evidence on consumption patterns further suggests that inflation in India has a lesser impact on low-income strata than on high-income groups. Traders also found some solace after commerce ministry said India's merchandise exports surged 30.7 per cent to $40.19 billion in April on account of healthy performance by sectors like petroleum products, electronic goods and chemicals, even as trade deficit widened to $20.11 billion during the month. However, key indices came under fag-end selling pressure to close in the red as risk-off sentiment prevailed amid unabated selling by foreign institutional investors and concerns over inflation. Traders also got anxious with data showing that India's retail inflation surged to an eight-year high of 7.79 percent in April, raising the prospect of another interest rate hike from the RBI in the next policy meeting in June. Besides, Industrial production growth remained subdued at 1.9 per cent in March compared to a year ago, mainly due to poor performance by the manufacturing sector which showed staggered impact of the third wave of the pandemic. Some concern also came as the country's foreign exchange reserves declined by $28.05 billion to $607.31 billion at the end of March this year from $635.36 billion at the end of September 2021. Sentiment was also weighed down by higher oil prices, which pressure the trade and current account deficits of India - the world's third-largest importer and consumer of oil. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 136.69 points or 0.26% to 52,793.62 and the CNX Nifty was down by 25.85 points or 0.16% to 15,782.15.