World Bank cuts India's economic growth forecast for FY23 to 7.5%

08 Jun 2022 Evaluate
With headwinds from rising inflation, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions offsetting buoyancy in the recovery of services consumption from the pandemic, the World Bank in its latest issue of the Global Economic Prospects has cut India's economic growth forecast for the current fiscal (FY23) to 7.5 per cent. This is the second time that the World Bank has revised its GDP growth forecast for India in the current fiscal 2022-23 (April 2022 to March 2023). In April, it had trimmed the forecast from 8.7 per cent to 8 per cent and now it is projected at 7.5 per cent.

It said growth will also be supported by fixed investment undertaken by the private sector and by the government, which has introduced incentives and reforms to improve the business climate. It bank added this forecast reflects a 1.2 percentage point downward revision of growth from the January projection. It noted that growth is expected to slow further to 7.1 percent in 2023-24 back towards its longer-run potential. 

According to the World Bank report, growth in India slowed in the first half of 2022 as activity was disrupted both by a surge in COVID-19 cases, accompanied by more-targeted mobility restrictions and by the war in Ukraine. The recovery is facing headwinds from rising inflation. The unemployment rate has declined to levels seen prior to the pandemic, but the labour force participation rate remains below pre-pandemic levels and workers have shifted to lower-paying jobs. In India, the focus of government spending has shifted toward infrastructure investment, labour regulations are being simplified, underperforming state-owned assets are being privatised, and the logistics sector is expected to be modernized and integrated, the bank said.

World Bank President David Malpas, in his foreword to the report, said global growth is expected to slow sharply from 5.7 per cent in 2021 to 2.9 per cent this year. He added ‘this also reflects a nearly one-third cut to our January 2022 forecast for this year of 4.1 per cent’. He also said ‘the surge in energy and food prices, along with the supply and trade disruptions triggered by the war in Ukraine and the necessary interest-rate normalization now underway, account for most of the downgrade’.

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