Markets likely to make negative start tracking Asian peers

Indian markets ended a choppy session mildly lower on Friday, extending losses to the sixth session in a row, dragged by weakness in IT shares though strength in financial stocks limited the downside. Today, markets are likely to make negative start amid recession fears coupled with aggravated foreign outflows from Indian equities. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) pulled out 31,430 crore equities so far in June. With this, the net foreign outflows from equities reached Rs 1.98 lakh crore in 2022 till now. Traders will be concerned as the latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed India’s foreign exchange reserves declined $4.6 billion to $596 billion for the week ended June 10. The fall in total reserves was mainly because of a decline in foreign currency assets worth $4.5 billion. However, some respite may come later in the day as the Income Tax department said the net direct tax collections till mid-June this fiscal increased 45 per cent to over Rs 3.39 lakh crore, buoyed by decent advance tax mop-up. The net direct tax collection of over Rs 3.39 lakh crore includes Corporation Tax (CIT) at over Rs 1.70 lakh crore and Personal Income Tax (PIT), including Security Transaction Tax (STT), at over Rs 1.67 lakh crore. Traders may take note of a private report that a combination of normal rainfalls aiding bumper agriculture output and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) further hiking interest rates to cut easy money in the system hold key to bringing down multi-year high inflation triggered by surging food and fuel prices. Besides, the latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) shows Bank credit grew 13.1 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in the fortnight ended June 3, the highest in the past three years. Public sector banks' will be in focus as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is scheduled to meet the heads of public sector banks to review their performance and progress. There will be some reaction jewellery industry stocks as the Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) said India’s gems and jewellery exports during May witnessed a year-on-year growth of 20 per cent to Rs 25,365.35 crore (USD 3.28 billion), amid strong demand from key markets, including the US. Coal industry stocks will be in limelight as the total domestic coal production in 2022-23, as of May 31, 2022, is 137.85 MT, which is 28.6 per cent more as compared to the production of 104.83 MT in the same period of last year. There will be some buzz in the textile industry stocks as Cotton Association of India (CAI) reduced its estimate for the cotton crop output for the current season beginning October 2021 to 315.32 lakh bales of 170 kg each, 8.31 lakh bales lower from its previous projection.

The US markets ended mostly higher on Friday as investors wrestled with the growing likelihood of a recession while global central banks tried to stamp out inflation. Asian markets are trading in red on Monday as US futures give up early gains amid worries the Fed would this week underline its commitment to fighting inflation with aggressive rate hikes if needed.

Back home, Indian equity bourses extended their fall for the sixth straight session on Friday, largely taking cues from the global markets, in absence of any major domestic event.  After the tepid start, the benchmarks continued trade with volatility till the end amid unabated foreign fund outflows, and rising crude oil prices. As per exchange data, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remained net sellers in the capital market, as they sold shares worth Rs 3,257.65 crore on Thursday. Traders got anxious as referring to economic crisis in Sri Lanka, a Reserve Bank article said states are showing warning signs of building stress, and the 5 most indebted ones -- Punjab, Rajasthan, Bihar, Kerala and West Bengal -- need to take corrective measures by cutting down expenditure on non-merit goods. Domestic sentiments remained negative, as RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das has said that big tech's play in finance poses systemic concerns like overleverage. Besides, RBI Governor said that loan recovery agents using harsh methods like calling up at odd hours, foul language unacceptable. However, losses remain capped as some support came with a periodic labour force survey by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed the unemployment rate for persons aged 15 years and above in urban areas dipped to 8.2 per cent in January-March 2022 from 9.3 per cent in the year-ago quarter. Some support also came in as advance tax paid by companies in the first quarter of the fiscal year grew 46 per cent over that in the equivalent period in 2021-22, indicating healthy tax buoyancy that will provide the government the cushion to absorb part of the higher subsidy bill. Besides, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its monthly bulletin said ‘Domestic economic activity has been gaining traction in spite of formidable headwinds from external developments’. Meanwhile, the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council will meet on June 28-29 to deliberate on the way forward after end of the five-year compensation period for states on June 30, including rationalization of tax rates in a phased manner, as a multi-year goal due to inflationary concerns. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 135.37 points or 0.26% to 51,360.42 and the CNX Nifty was down by 67.10 points or 0.44% to 15,293.50.