Bond yields remain unaffected post release of muted IIP data

11 Jan 2013 Evaluate

Pre IIP data release Scenario:

Bond yields edged lower largely driven by continued investor demand, even ahead of the release of November factory data, scheduled to be released later in the noon, with any sharp fall likely to cement rate cut hopes in the January 29 policy review. Street widely expects the industrial output data for November to be at -0.64% which is much lower than the 8.2% growth posted in October.

On the global front, US 10-year Treasuries slipped in Asian trade on Friday but their moves were limited, with traders looking to upcoming economic data for clues on direction. Meanwhile, Brent crude futures fell sub $112 a barrel on Friday after faster-than-expected inflation in China eased investors' confidence in the growth prospects of the world's second biggest oil consumer, but output cuts in Saudi Arabia limited the loss. China's annual consumer inflation sped to a seven-month high of 2.5 percent in December, narrowing the scope for further policy easing to aid growth and leading Asian shares to give up early gains.

Closer home, the yields on 10-year 8.79% - 2021 were trading 2 basis points lower at 7.86% from its previous close of 7.88% on Thursday.

The benchmark five-year interest rates were trading 2 basis points higher at 7.20% from its previous close of 7.18% on Thursday.

Post IIP data release Scenario:

The yields on 10-year 8.79% - 2021 were trading 3 basis points lower at 7.85% from its previous close of 7.88% on Thursday.

India's industrial output shrank in November after a spurt the previous month, denting hopes of a recovery in economic growth and strengthening the case for an interest rate cut later this month. In a positive surprise, India's annual industrial output growth measured by index of industrial production (IIP), contracted by just 0.1% at 167.3 for the month of November 2012 against growth of 8.2% in the previous month. The figure was much higher against the street’s expectation of -0.6%.

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