Inflation cools down to three year low at 7.18% in December 2012

14 Jan 2013 Evaluate

Slowing down to a three year low level, the wholesale price index (WPI), India's main inflation gauge, unexpectedly cooled down to 7.18% (Provisional) for the month of December, 2012 as compared to 7.24% for November and 7.74% during the corresponding month of the previous year. Further, the annual reading for the month of October also was revised lower to 7.32% from earlier of 7.45%.

Re-igniting hopes of rate-cut from Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its upcoming monetary policy review on January 29, the figures were not only below the consensus estimates of 7.40% figure for the month of December, but were also way below the Reserve Bank of India’s projection of around 8 percent in its October policy review. Build up inflation in the financial year so far was 4.72% compared to a buildup of 5.22% in the corresponding period of the previous year.

As per the government data, manufactured products which carries weight of almost 65% in the index, remained unchanged at its previous month’s level of 148.0 (Provisional). The index for ‘Food Articles’ group declined by 0.4% to 167.1 from 167.7 in the previous month. While, the index for primary articles group, which has a weightage of 20.12% in overall WPI and includes food, non-food and minerals group declined by 0.4% to 220.0 from 220.8 of the previous month. The index for ‘Food Articles’ group declined by 0.5% to 212.2 from 213.2 in the previous month, while, the index for ‘Non Food Articles’ group rose by 0.8% at 202.9 (Provisional) from 201.3 (Provisional) for the previous month. However, the index for ‘Minerals’ group declined by 1.8% to 340.8 (Provisional) from 347.1 (Provisional) for the previous month.

Indian economy is headed for the weakest full-year growth in a decade, at about 6%, far below the near double-digit pace before the global economic downturn. But despite the slowdown, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been hesitant to lower rates since April last year because of inflation rate hovering near seven percent, worsened by a weak rupee that has added to the cost of fuel imports.

However, continued softening trend in WPI inflation in recent months will open space for monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of India on January 29. RBI's in its upcoming policy review, is widely expected to cut the policy repo rate, which has remained unchanged at 8.0 percent since April 2011, by at least 25 basis points.

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