India likely to standout with higher fiscal deficit levels in 2013: Moody's

15 Jan 2013 Evaluate

According to rating agency Moody’s, India and its neighbours Pakistan and Sri Lanka, are expected to stand out with higher fiscal deficit levels in 2013, while most of the countries in the Asia-Pacific will show improvement in their fiscal profile.

On India, it said that the extent to which GDP growth revives and yields higher tax revenue would determine the improvement in fiscal position of the country. Further, Moody’s stated that a stable investor base of domestic financial institutions and restrictions on capital investment abroad ensure the availability of domestic funding for government debt. Moody’s rating for India’s government bonds is Baa3, the outlook is negative.

For the Asia-Pacific, it said that the improvement in deficit levels and robust nominal GDP growth will help to maintain the downward trajectory of general government debt.  Further, it is expected to decline from a median of 42.7% of GDP in 2011 to 40% by end-2013.

Moreover, with the ongoing fiscal consolidation efforts in Asia-Pacific region, Moody’s said that the median fiscal deficit for the region was likely to improve to -2.6% of GDP from 2.8% in 2012, while the ratio had shot up to 3.9% of GDP for the region in 2009, at the height of the global financial crisis.

Remaining negative on India and its neighbours like Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Japan, Moody’s said that all are expected to maintain fiscal deficits around double the region’s median with their general government debt levels might stay in excess of 60 per cent of GDP.

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