India's inflation although off a peak remains high: Subbarao

16 Jan 2013 Evaluate

Tempering the expectations of interest rate cut beginning this month, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Duvvuri Subbarao underscored that India's inflation has come off a peak but is still high. Although acknowledging the sagging growth of Indian economy, he said, ‘when growth is slowing down, the economy can be stimulated either by monetary easing or by fiscal stimulus, but both monetary and fiscal side have no room for stimulus.

Expectations for a rate cut picked up pace this week after the release of December headline inflation data. Slowing down to a three year low level, the wholesale price index (WPI), India's main inflation gauge, unexpectedly cooled down to 7.18% (Provisional) for the month of December, 2012 as compared to 7.24% for November and 7.74% during the corresponding month of the previous year. Further, the annual reading for the month of October was also revised lower to 7.32% from earlier of 7.45%.

However, the rate cut hopes also gathered steam after RBI, in a clear signal said that the focus of the monetary policy will now shift to growth, in the ‘Mid-Quarter Monetary Policy Review: December 2012.’ The report stated, ‘recent inflation patterns and projections provide a basis for reinforcing our October guidance about policy easing in the fourth quarter.

Subbarao, who has so far defied calls from the finance ministry to cut rates to prop up an economy that has posted GDP growth below 6 percent for the past three quarters, also averred that though the rate of price increase has slowed, it remains elevated. The wholesale price index, India's main gauge for inflation, has remained above 7 percent for the past three years, a key reason why the RBI has refrained from lowering policy rates since April's 50-basis point cut.

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