Bond yields edge lower on re-ignited rate cut hopes after diesel hike action

18 Jan 2013 Evaluate

Bond yields edged lower on re-ignited hopes of rate cut by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its upcoming third quarter monetary policy review on January 29. Government’s decision of partially deregulating diesel prices, a move towards fiscal consolidation, may help ease the apparent hawkish stance of RBI, which puts fiscal consolidation as a pre-condition for rate cuts.

The government today bit the bullet on diesel prices by partially deregulating. It announced a hike of 40-50 paise a litre per month for retail customers and nearly Rs 11 for bulk consumers. The move is expected to cut the subsidy bill by Rs 12,900 crore on account of hike in price of fuel sold to bulk consumers like Railways and state transport undertakings.

Meanwhile, tempering the expectations of interest rate cut beginning this month, RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao, few days back, underscored that India's inflation has come off a peak but is still high. Although acknowledging the sagging growth of Indian economy, he said, ‘when growth is slowing down, the economy can be stimulated either by monetary easing or by fiscal stimulus, but both monetary and fiscal side have no room for stimulus.

On the global front, US Treasuries slipped in Asian trading on Friday after a spate of upbeat Chinese economic data, though concerns about the US debt ceiling issue tempered losses. Meanwhile, Brent crude steadied above $111 per barrel on Friday, supported by a rebound in China's growth and encouraging data from the United States.

Closer home, the yields on 10-year 8.79% - 2021 were trading 2 basis points (bps) lower at 7.82% from its previous close of 7.84% on Thursday.

The benchmark five-year interest rates were trading down by 2 basis points at 7.12% from its previous close of 7.14% on Thursday.

The Government of India have announced the sale (re-issue) of three dated securities for Rs 12,000 crore on January 18, 2013, which includes, (i) ‘8.07 percent Government Stock 2017-JUL’ for a notified amount of Rs 3,000 crore (nominal) through price based auction; (ii) ‘8.33 percent Government Stock 2026’ for a notified amount of RS 6,000 crore (nominal) through price based auction; and (iii) ‘8.97 percent Government Stock 2030’ for a notified amount of Rs 3,000 crore (nominal) through price based auction. The auctions will be conducted using multiple price method.

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