Moody's retains India’s credit rating outlook

21 Jan 2013 Evaluate

The global rating agency Moody's has retained India's credit rating at the existing level, but cautioned that a high fiscal deficit could pull down the economic growth in the coming years. Moody's expects Indian economy to grow by 5.4 percent in the current fiscal and 6 percent in FY14 while, in the last fiscal, economy grew by 6.5 percent.

The agency also highlighted factors like large government deficits and debt ratios as well as supply constraints in the form of infrastructure, policy and administrative inefficiencies constraining the sovereign credit profile. While on the positive side the global rating agency reaffirmed sovereign credit rating of India at Baa3, which indicates investment grade with a stable outlook.

As per the agency, the government finances are the weakest aspect of India's macroeconomic profile. Further, high commodity prices have raised the subsidy bill and the government's measures to reduce fuel and fertilizer subsidies are too modest to compensate for high global commodity prices. However, the agency’s report has not taken into account the recent decision of the government to partially deregulate diesel and allow oil market companies to raise price every month. 

Regarding the growth prospects, it said that a downturn was underway which could be made worse by slower global growth. While the robust domestic savings and a dynamic private sector would provide strength in the medium term.

On India’s outlook in the near term, the agency said improvement in fiscal situation would depend in increasing tax revenues and expediting PSU disinvestment. Further, on the rating upgrade, Moody's said that the improvement in investment climate, project completion, reduction in infrastructure bottlenecks and sustained improvement in public finances could lead to the credit rating upgrade. However, it also cautioned that a continued increase in government debt ratio and worsening of the balance of payments situation could lead a ratings downgrade.

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