Credit rating agency ICRA in its latest report has predicted that the inflation is likely to undershoot the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) Q2 and Q3 FY2023 projections modestly, with expectations of the first monthly sub-6% inflation print in Q3 itself, resulting in the agency’s full-year CPI inflation projection of 6.5%.
As per the report, the moderation in global commodity prices since mid-June 2022 will reduce the pressure on business margins and boost value-added growth in Q2 FY2023. This could support growth in Q3- Q4 FY2023 also if the commodity price downtrend sustains.
Further, the rating agency noted that risks have emerged on account of the flagging external demand and rising uncertainty amidst a global slowdown, which could curtail India’s exports and defer the anticipated broad-basing of private capex activity.
Given the MPC’s focus on anchoring inflation expectations and the RBI Governor’s statement on ensuring that inflation moving closer to the target of 4.0% over the medium term, the agency expects another rate hike of around 10-35 bps in the September 2022 Policy meeting, albeit lower than the newly coined ‘new normal’ of 50 bps. After that, ICRA believes the MPC is likely to turn extremely data dependent.
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