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Economic situation likely to change for better; deficit worries remain: ASSOCHAM

22 Jan 2013 Evaluate

As per the industry body ASSOCHAM, India’s economic situation is expected to improve in the coming months, though the fiscal deficit target set by the government seems to be unachievable in the current fiscal. The scenario, as captured by the ASSOCHAM Business Confidence Survey for December 2012, seems to be improving at both the economic and industry levels.

The latest round of the survey suggests that economic situation has somewhat turned better in the last six months. Further, there is also an expectation of situation to be much better in the short to medium term horizon at both industry as well as firm level.

As per the survey, majority of respondents expect their sales volumes to be higher in the following quarter and investments are also expected to be more or less constant in the coming six months. Further, in reference to the recent approval given to multi-brand retail, the industry believes that the measure would have a positive impact on farmers, consumers, rural youth, employment and in reducing inflation, while it would negatively affect small retailers and SMEs.

Further, the survey reported that poor infrastructure, high cost of credit and increasing raw material prices are the factors affecting business confidence. On fiscal deficit, it said that rising fiscal deficit has been a major cause of concern not only for the policy makers but also for the industry.

As per survey, the majority of the respondents firmly believed that the fiscal deficit target set by the government is not achievable in the current scenario. However, the government hopes to restrict fiscal deficit at 5.3% of the GDP in the current fiscal year in view of savings on certain expenditure and the likelihood of garnering budgeted proceeds from disinvestment and spectrum sale. Earlier, the government had enhanced the fiscal deficit target from 5.1% to 5.3% for the current fiscal.

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