Markets to make positive start of F&O expiry session

Indian markets managed to close in the green in a highly volatile session on Wednesday as gains in financial shares were offset by losses in IT counters. Today, the start of the F&O series expiry session is likely to be positive amid strong global sentiments. Traders may take note of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Jayanth R Varma’s statement that inflation must be brought down to the medium-term target of 4 percent as quickly as possible while ensuring rate increases do not hurt the economy drastically. Though, he also said the biggest risk to India's growth outlook is an escalation of geopolitical tensions, especially if these tensions spread to the Asian region. However, there may be some cautiousness with Crisil's report that States' revenue growth will slide to 7-9 per cent in FY23 even as handsome GST collections will help in the accretion. It said the revenue growth had galloped 25 per cent in FY22 courtesy a lower base in the pandemic-affected FY21. Traders may be concerned as a private report stated that elevated commodity prices could widen India's current account deficit, keeping the rupee under pressure until more sustainable capital flows can fill the gap. Sentiments may get impacted as an ADB report said the COVID-19 pandemic has set back the fight against poverty in Asia and the Pacific by at least two years. Meanwhile, highlighting challenges faced in deepening India’s corporate bond market, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Deputy Governor T Rabi Sankar said that improving the quality of trade data in the market and adopting a single valuation method were key aims to be aspired for. Banking stocks will be in focus as the former chairman of the statistical commission said India's banking sector is faced with the predicament of a massive asset-liability mismatch that could explode anytime, and there is a need to reassess laws governing the industry. There will be some reaction in infrastructure and railways stocks with a private report stating that the country is on course to build more national highways and rail lines during the decade ending 2025 than it has cumulatively done between 1950 and 2015. Fertilizer industry stocks will be in limelight as to bring about uniformity in fertiliser brands across the country, the government issued an order directing all companies to sell their products under a single brand name of Bharat.

The US markets ended higher on Wednesday lifted by gains in energy stocks and Intuit. Investors awaited the Fed's Jackson Hole conference this week. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Thursday tracking overnight gains on Wall Street.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks, after fluctuating between gains and losses, ended flat with a positive bias on Wednesday. Markets made cautious start and traded volatile for whole day, as traders got anxious with Standard and Poor’s (S&P) stating that credit profiles could deteriorate for up to $114 billion of debt in the books of Indian companies tackling rising interest rates and inflation. Some concern also came as Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) in its latest data showed that investment through participatory notes (P-notes) in the domestic capital market declined to Rs 75,725 crore at the end of July, the lowest level in nearly two years, mainly in the wake of aggressive rate hikes by the US Fed. This also marks the third consecutive monthly decline in investment numbers. Traders took note of report that the Sebi has imposed prudential limits on investments by portfolio managers in their own associates or related parties. However, key gauges managed to close with modest green in a highly volatile session, taking support from Commerce Secretary BVR Subrahmanyam’s statement that India's merchandise exports are likely to be around $470-480 billion in the current fiscal against $420 billion in 2021-22. Traders also took some solace as ICRA in its latest report projected India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 13.0% for first quarter (April-June) of current fiscal year (FY23) a sharp jump from the 4.1% in Q4 FY22. It has also projected the year-on-year (YoY) growth of the gross value added (GVA) at basic prices (at constant 2011-12 prices) in Q1 FY23 at 12.6%, a jump from 3.9% recorded in Q4 FY22.  Some optimism came in as SBI Ecowrap report stated that India's GDP is expected to be much higher in Q1FY23 and growth is expected around 15.7 per cent with a large possibility of an upward bias because several indicators have shown good progress in the Indian economy. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 54.13 points or 0.09% to 59,085.43 and the CNX Nifty was up by 27.45 points or 0.16% to 17,604.95.a