RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Jayanth R Varma has said that the biggest risk to India's growth outlook is an escalation of geopolitical tensions, especially if these tensions spread to the Asian region. He also said that inflation and inflationary expectations appear to be moderating and high inflation will certainly not become the 'norm' in the country.
Varma is cautiously optimistic about the Indian economy as after the pandemic abated, consumption demand has begun to recover though the recovery is uneven across sectors and industries. He also said capacity utilization has been inching up, and is now approaching levels at which business will have to seriously consider capital expenditure for expansion. He further noted that the MPC is determined to bring inflation down close to the target rate of 4 per cent as quickly as possible without imposing intolerable costs in terms of economic growth.
Noting that inflation has already peaked, he said Inflation would be above the target for several quarters, but there is reason to believe that the worst is over, unless the world is confronted by another unforeseen global shock. On the other hand, he said any adverse shocks to economic growth (domestic or global) could cause a steeper decline in inflation than is currently expected. He said in the last three years, India's inflation targeting regime was confronted with two shocks in rapid succession -- the pandemic (which was an unprecedented growth shock) and the Ukraine war (which has caused a global inflation shock). He added that by helping maintain credibility of monetary policy, the inflation targeting regime proved its worth in confronting both these shocks.
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