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India unlikely to face recession due to ‘not so coupled’ nature with global economy: S&P

22 Sep 2022 Evaluate

Exhibiting optimism over Indian economy, global rating agency S&P has said even though the US and the Euro zone are headed to recession, India is unlikely to face the impact given the ‘not so coupled’ nature of its economy with the global economy. Paul F Gruenwald, S&P global chief economist and managing director said ‘Indian economy is a lot decoupled from the global economy than we normally think of, given its large domestic demand, even though you (India) are a net importer of energy. But you have enough forex reserves on one hand and your companies have managed to maintain healthy balance sheets’.

He said in fact India was never coupled fully with the global economy and so is relatively independent of global markets, and added that a lot depends on how global fund flows behave if there is a recession in the US and Europe. Their inflation numbers continue to dodge the monetary actions by their central banks as the gap between the US core inflation target and the actual number is three times at 6 per cent.

On Indian growth numbers, Crisil Ratings (which is majority-owned by S&P Global Ratings) chief economist D K Joshi saidthat they hold their recent forecast wherein they ‘expect the economy to grow at 7.3 per cent this fiscal and slow down to 6.5 per cent next fiscal, with more downside risks to both the numbers.’ Besides, Gruenwald said despite these headwinds, India will be doing a lot better than the rest of the world.

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