S&P projects India's GDP growth at 7.3% in FY23

26 Sep 2022 Evaluate

S&P Global Ratings has projected India's Gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 7.3 percent in the current fiscal (FY23) with downside risks and said inflation is likely to remain above RBI's upper tolerance threshold of 6 percent till the end of 2022. In its Economic Outlook for the Asia Pacific, it said India's growth next year will get support from domestic demand recovery after the coronavirus pandemic.

On inflation, S&P Global Ratings pegged the average rate in the current fiscal at 6.8 percent and projected it to fall to 5 percent in the next fiscal beginning April 2023. India's headline Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) is likely to remain outside the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) upper tolerance limit of 6 percent until the end of 2022. That's amid substantial weather-induced wheat and rice price increases as well as sticky core inflation. And food inflation may rise again.

It further said retail or consumer price inflation has remained above RBI's upper tolerance threshold of 6 percent for the eighth month in a row and was at 7 percent in August. Wholesale price inflation remained in double digits for the 17th straight month and was at 12.41 percent in August. According to S&P Global Ratings, elevated core inflation would drive up policy rates further in India, and projected policy interest rates to be 5.90 percent by the end of this fiscal. 

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