India will emerge as strongest major economy with 7% growth rate in FY23: Sanjeev Sanyal

10 Oct 2022 Evaluate

Expressing confidence over the country’s economic growth, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) member Sanjeev Sanyal has said that India will perhaps emerge as the strongest major economy with 7 per cent growth rate in FY23, amid fears of the world slipping into recession. He observed that India can grow at 9 per cent in an external conducive environment like in early 2000s when the global economy was growing. He added ‘We are clearly entering an environment where many countries around the world will be facing much slower growth or even slipping into recession. This is due to a combination of factors ranging from tighter monetary policy to higher energy costs, as well as disruptions caused by the Ukraine war.’

Sanyal emphasised that the cumulative impact of supply side reforms over many years by the Modi government has meant that India's economy is currently much more flexible and resilient than it used to be. He noted that if India gets an external environment like the one it had during 2002-03 to 2006-07 when the global economy was growing, global inflationary pressures were muted, then its economy is capable of delivering 9 per cent growth. He said ‘But obviously, we are not in that environment right now. So given that situation 7 per cent GDP growth rate is a good performance’.

However, the EAC-PM member cautioned against pushing growth unnecessarily ‘when the highway has so many bumps and hurdles in the way’. On the Indian rupee touching a historic low last week, he said ‘I don't think we should get too fussed about looking at just the dollar INR exchange rate’. According to him, there is obviously a very sharp strengthening of the US dollar against all currencies and in that circumstance, the rupee actually is appreciating against all currencies except dollar. Noting that the Reserve Bank is correct in allowing the rupee to find its level while at the same time using the reserves to smoothen the volatility, he said the central bank should not defend a particular level, it should however, use its reserves to control volatility.

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