Monetary policy expectations: a small rate cut of 25-50 bps widely possible

29 Jan 2013 Evaluate

With the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) all set to take a call on policy rates in its third quarter review of monetary policy on January 29, on expected line the policy regime would be driven by the RBI’s take on three parameters, namely inflation, growth and liquidity. However, one has to look at the recent economic data before guessing what the central bank will do at its policy review.

The apex bank had earlier hinted that it could go in for an interest rate cut in January, in the previous review, provided the price situation showed a downtrend and adequate steps were taken by the government towards fiscal consolidation. However, RBI Governor D Subbarao’s recent statement that inflation remains way above the central bank’s comfort zone and the recent rise in diesel prices is certain to add to the price spiral, is likely to be priced in.

Taking a view of recent economic data, the first factor favouring a rate-cut would be inflation based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI), which declined to a three-year low of 7.18% for the month of December from 7.24% recorded a month prior, showing definite signs of sustained moderation. Further, steep fall in core inflation, excluding food and fuel prices to 4.2% in December from 5.73% in September, is a vital reference point for monetary policy.

Secondly, industrial production has dropped considerably this financial year, witnessing a decline in five of the eight months till November. Similarly, GDP growth is unlikely to be very much above 5.5% in 2012-13. In November, IIP saw a contraction of 0.1%, which may pressure the apex bank to ease rates, with growth concerns increasing month after month. All the above factors have resulted in industry pressing its demand for a rate cut. Further, with the RBI shifting its focus to growth from inflation, a repo rate cut of 25-50 basis points (bps) in the third quarter review is widely possible.

On the other hand, an important point in favour of RBI maintaining a status quo stance on policy rates is that inflation, though declining, is still well above the RBI comfort zone of 5%. Along with is the inflation based on consumer price index (CPI), which surged to double-digit level of 10.56% in December from 9.9% in the previous month. The sharp difference in between WPI and CPI indices may restrict RBI’s scope to ease monetary policy.

On the whole, with the government’s reform measures to boost business confidence, recent moderation in core inflation, and RBI’s mid-December policy statement explicitly hinting at rate-cut in the fourth quarter (January-March 2012-13), we expect the central bank to ease the repo rate by 25-50 basis points. However, RBI lowering India's GDP forecast to 5.5% in 2012-13 as against 5.7% estimated earlier, dims the rate-cut hopes.

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