India's economic growth could fall to 5.5% this financial year before seeing gradual recovery next year, as per the RBI-sponsored survey. The latest estimate of the RBI, coming a day ahead of its quarterly monetary policy review, is lower than the government's revised annual growth estimate of 5.7%.
As per the 22nd round of survey by professional forecasters of RBI, the median growth projection has been revised downwards to 5.5% on the back of slower growth for 2012-13 fiscal. The RBI had earlier projected a growth rate of 5.8%, while the government expects the economy to grow by 5.7% in the current fiscal.
Further, the RBI sponsored survey stated that there would be a gradual recovery in 2013-14 and the economy could clock a growth of 6.5%. The Indian economy grew at over 8% for two consecutive years before declining to 6.5% in 2011-12 fiscal.
Moreover, third quarter review of macroeconomic and monetary developments, growth in 2012-13 is likely to fall below the reserve bank's baseline projection of 5.8% due to supply and infrastructure bottlenecks and slack in external demand. Further RBI added that it is imperative that recent reform measures continue to be executed efficiently and domestic inflation recedes further to support sustainable recovery in India.
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