Bond yields decline after RBI caves into growing clamour for rate cut

29 Jan 2013 Evaluate

Scenario ahead of ‘Third Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2012-13’:

Bond yields edged higher after a central bank report saying sustained fiscal consolidation was needed to create room for monetary easing, fanned doubts about whether it would cut interest rates later in the day as widely expected. The market participants widely expected RBI to pause or at best do token rates cut of 25 basis points.

On the global front, US Treasury yields, extending their uptrend, rose near a nine-month high on Tuesday on signs of improvement in Europe and mildly upbeat US economic data. Meanwhile, Brent crude held steady above $113 on Tuesday on hopes that economic growth might be picking up in the world's largest oil consumer after a gauge of planned US business spending rose in December, adding to recent positive global economic data.

Back home, the yields on 10-year 8.79% - 2021 bonds were trading 3 basis points higher at 7.89% from its previous close of 7.86% on Monday.

The benchmark five-year interest rate swaps were trading 1 basis point higher at 7.15% from its previous close of 7.14% on Monday.

The Reserve Bank of India has announced the auction of 91-day and 182-day Government of India Treasury Bills for notified amount of Rs 5,000 crore each. The auction will be conducted on January 30, 2013 using ‘Multiple Price Auction’ method.

Additionally, the Government of India have announced the sale (re-issue) of  three dated securities for Rs 12,000 crore on February 01, 2013, which includes, (i) “8.12 percent Government Stock 2020” for a notified amount of  Rs 3,000 crore (nominal) through price based auction; (ii) “8.20 percent Government Stock 2025” for a notified amount of  Rs 6,000 crore (nominal) through price based auction; and (iii) “8.30 percent Government Stock 2042” for a notified amount of  Rs 3,000 crore (nominal) through price based auction. The auctions will be conducted using multiple price method. The auctions will be conducted by the Reserve Bank of India, Fort, Mumbai on February 01, 2013 (Friday).

Scenario after ‘Third Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2012-13’:

Yields on ten year bonds fell after RBI, caving into growing clamour for a rate cut, in  its ‘Third Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2012-13’, not only slashed  repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.75 per cent against 8 per cent earlier, but also reduced cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks by 25 basis points from 4.25 per cent to 4.0 per cent of their net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) effective the fortnight beginning February 9, 2013, a move that would release around Rs 18,000 crore of primary liquidity into the banking system.

The yields on 10-year 8.79% - 2021 bonds were trading 3 basis points lower at 7.85% from earlier 7.89%.

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