CAD, inflation pose limitation on easing of monetary policy: Subbarao

30 Jan 2013 Evaluate

RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao although obliged the markets by lowering the benchmark interest rate and banks' cash reserve ratio, maintained a cautious undertone for its upcoming monetary policy stance, since the current third quarterly monetary policy review failed to reveal that move taken to support the economy set for its slowest growth in a decade, was the beginning of a lower interest rate cycle.

Governor D Subbarao, pointed Current Account Deficit (CAD), as being another indicator in addition to inflation that poses a limitation on the easing of monetary policy. Monetary policy cannot be eased further due to the high CAD in a slowing economy, which is being financed by capital flows, most of which are short term, governor underscored. He added, ‘by far, the biggest risk for inflation and for macroeconomic development is current account deficit, in the context of slowing growth and high fiscal deficit.’

The CAD, which is the difference between the country's imports of goods and services and exports, touched a historic high of 5.2% of GDP in the quarter ended September 2012. According to the RBI, the CAD as a percentage of the GDP is likely to have risen further in the quarter ended December 2012, which is a matter of serious concern for the central bank as the CAD is rising during a slowdown, when imports also dwindle.

Moreover, central bank chief explaining, the vicious cycle of current account deficit and fiscal deficit, highlighted that the widening of the CAD to record levels, in the background of a large fiscal deficit and sluggish growth, exposes the economy to the risks from twin deficits.

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