Prospect of sovereign rating downgrade has receded for India: S&P

01 Feb 2013 Evaluate

In what could be a big relief to the government and policy makers, an analyst with rating agency Standard & Poor’s has been reported to have said that the possibility of India losing its investment grade credit rating has receded somewhat as a result of economic reforms undertaken by the government since last September. However, it still faces at least a one in a three chances of downgrade, with less likelihood when the rating agency first indicated the negative outlook last year.

Currently, India has a BBB- rating from S&P, the lowest investment grade among the BRIC economies. Any further downgrade will push India's rating to the junk status, making it difficult and costlier for Indian entities to borrow funds overseas. As a result, these comments were the most positive by S&P on India since it cut the outlook in April, citing its weakening growth prospects, widening fiscal gap and worsening political climate.

To revive an economy headed for its slowest growth in a decade, the government launched a slew of economic reforms by opening retail and aviation sectors to more foreign investment, hiked railway passenger fares, cut budget-busting fuel subsidies and slapped higher duties on gold imports that have widened its current account deficit.

Earlier this month, Moody's Investors Service retained its ‘stable’ outlook on India's sovereign rating, citing potential for growth, robust domestic savings rate and a dynamic private sector. Fitch had also reaffirmed its ‘negative’ outlook on India over its current account deficit and slow economic growth, raising fears that the country could be downgraded to below investment grade.

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