Post Session: Quick Review

Indian equity benchmarks traded in red throughout day and ended with losses of over half a percent, following negative cues from global stocks. Local equity markets made gap down opening, as traders were worried after latest payroll data released by the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation showed the number of fresh formal jobs created fell for the second consecutive month in September, declining 9 per cent sequentially to 930,000. Enrolment of new female subscribers fell faster (11.39 per cent) than their male counterparts (8.13 per cent) in September, compared with the previous month. Some cautiousness also came after foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net offloaded shares worth Rs 751.20 crore on 18 November, according to the provisional data available on NSE.

Markets continued to reel under pressure in afternoon session, as sentiments got hit amid private report said that the Indian economy which claimed the title of the fastest-growing major economy in the previous fiscal is likely to lose its momentum in 2023 owing to higher borrowing costs and fading benefits from the Covid pandemic reopening. It stated gross domestic product may expand by 5.9% in the calendar year 2023 from an estimated 6.9% this year. Traders failed to take any support eith Niti Aayog Vice-Chairman Rajiv Kumar’ statement that India will still grow at 6-7 per cent in the next 2023-24 fiscal even as the economy may be affected by uncertain global conditions amid growing fears of the world slipping into a recession. Kumar further said there is a synchronized downturn in the US, Europe, Japan and also in China and that could take the global economy into a recession in the coming months. Indices suffered with deep cut till the end of the session, as sentiments remained downbeat as the gross fiscal deficit of the Indian states rose nearly 79 per cent after the lockdown. According to the latest data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the fiscal deficit rose from Rs 5.2 trillion in FY20 to Rs 9.3 trillion in FY21. In FY22, the deficit fell to Rs 8.1 trillion but stood much higher than the pre-pandemic level.

On the global front, European markets were trading lower as investors continued to assess inflationary pressures and the possible trajectory of central bank interest rates. Asian markets ended mostly in red amid anxiety about Federal Reserve plans for more interest rate hikes to cool inflation. Back home, metal sector remained in limelight after government has cut the export duty on steel products and iron ore, in order to provide a fillip to the domestic steel industry and boost exports. Besides, import duty on anthracite, coking coal and ferronickel used as raw material in the steel industry has been hiked.

The BSE Sensex ended at 61,144.84, down by 518.64 points or 0.84% after trading in a range of 61,059.33 and 61,456.33. There were 7 stocks advancing against 22 stocks declining on the index, while 1 stock remained unchanged. (Provisional)

The broader indices ended mixed; the BSE Mid cap index declined 0.15%, while Small cap index was up by 0.01%. (Provisional)

The only gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Telecom up by 0.71% and Consumer Durables was up by 0.16%, while IT down by 1.46%, Power down by 1.42%, Utilities down by 1.41%, Realty down by 1.38% and TECK was down by 1.04% were the top losing indices on BSE. (Provisional)

The top gainers on the Sensex were Bharti Airtel up by 1.73%, Axis Bank up by 1.25%, Indusind Bank up by 1.21%, Hindustan Unilever up by 0.76% and Power Grid up by 0.39%. On the flip side, Tech Mahindra down by 2.19%, Reliance Industries down by 1.91%, TCS down by 1.85%, HDFC down by 1.76% and Infosys down by 1.53% were the top losers. (Provisional)

Meanwhile, amid growing fears of the world slipping into a recession, former Niti Aayog Vice-Chairman Rajiv Kumar has said even as the economy may be affected by uncertain global conditions India will still grow at 6-7 per cent in the next 2023-24 fiscal. He further said there is a synchronized downturn in the US, Europe, Japan and also in China and that could take the global economy into a recession in the coming months. He added ‘Thankfully, there is no such prospect of recession in India, because although our growth may be negatively affected by the global conditions, we will still manage to grow at 6-7 per cent in 2023-24’.

Regarding high inflation, Kumar said retail inflation will probably be in the range of 6-7 per cent for some more time. He said ‘After that, my estimate is that it should begin to peak and then come down’. He added that depends a lot on global oil prices as it can continue to rise because of the continued conflict in Ukraine. He noted that ‘But otherwise domestic drivers of inflation will cool down’. Indicating easing of the price situation, retail inflation moderated to 6.7 per cent in October while the wholesale price index fell to a 19-month low mainly on account of subdued rates of food items.

About the impact of a weakening Indian rupee on the common man, he said the common Indian does not use a lot of imported goods or services in their consumption basket. According to him, the rupee which is near its real value is much better for the economy than the appreciated rupee and depreciated rupee doesn't pose many downside risks. On India's widening trade deficit, he said with the negative growth of exports in October, it is clear that the country needs a real policy focus on this area on how to expand its exports of both goods and services.

The CNX Nifty ended at 18,159.95, down by 147.70 points or 0.81% after trading in a range of 18,133.35 and 18,262.30. There were 13 stocks advancing against 37 stocks declining on the index. (Provisional)

The top gainers on Nifty were BPCL up by 2.04%, Bharti Airtel up by 1.66%, Axis Bank up by 1.26%, Indusind Bank up by 0.92% and Hindustan Unilever up by 0.71%. On the flip side, ONGC down by 4.44%, Adani Ports down by 1.95%, Hindalco down by 1.84%, HDFC down by 1.81% and Reliance Industries down by 1.80% were the top losers. (Provisional)

European markets were trading lower, UK’s FTSE 100 decreased 14.45 points or 0.2% to 7,371.07, France’s CAC decreased 10.20 points or 0.15% to 6,634.26 and Germany’s DAX was down by 69.79 points or 0.48% to 14,362.07.

Asian markets settled mostly lower on Monday as surging corona virus cases with first covid deaths reported in China since May led to new restrictions there and weighed on market sentiments. Moreover, geopolitical and interest-rate uncertainties added more pressure on markets. As Russia and Ukraine trade blame over the weekend's shelling near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the head of the UN nuclear watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Mariano Grossi has warned that whoever is behind the shelling at Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is ‘playing with fire’. Meanwhile, minutes from the European Central Bank meeting and the US Fed later this week will provide markets with more direction on the outlook for interest rates. Although, Japanese shares rose marginally tracking gains posted by Wall Street stocks last week and after Warren Buffet's investment Company, Berkshire Hathaway raised its stake in the country's five biggest trading houses.