Despite recent global headwinds, Asian Development Bank (ADB) has kept its outlook for India's economic growth unchanged at 7 per cent for the fiscal year 2022-23 (April 2022 to March 2023) from its September forecast supported by a strong domestic base. In 2021-22, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was 8.7 per cent. Besides, for 2023-24, the GDP growth has been kept unchanged at 7.2 per cent sustained by positive effects from structural reform and from public investment catalysing private investment.
It said ‘while some recent high-frequency indicators are more favourable than expected -- notably consumer confidence, electricity supply and purchasing managers' indexes -- others are a little less favourable, in particular exports, largely textiles and iron ore, and the index of industrial production of consumer goods’. Further, inflation in India is still expected to rise to 6.7 per cent in 2022-23 before falling back to 5.8 per cent.
It also said ‘in India, the economy grew by 6.3 per cent in Q2 (July-September) of the fiscal year 2022-23, reflecting contraction in public consumption of 4.4 per cent even as exports grew by 11.5 per cent despite the global slowdown’. On the supply side, the increase was led by service sector growth at 9.3 per cent, contributing 4.6 percentage points to GDP growth. It added industry, by contrast, suffered a small contraction by 0.8 per cent, dragged down by contraction in manufacturing and mining.
Though, it forecasted a weaker-than-previously expected growth for developing Asia. It saw Asia expanding 4.2 per cent this year before accelerating to 4.6 per cent in 2023. These projections compare to the previously estimated expansion of 4.3 per cent and 4.9 per cent, respectively.
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